A Look Ahead To 2010

I can’t believe the season is over. Talk about time flying when you’re having fun. But with the 2009 fantasy season in the books I thought I’d look ahead to 2010. Here’s a very rough and very early Top 10 list at the primary fantasy positions using NFFC scoring. What do you think?

QUARTERBACKS
1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Peyton Manning
5. Matt Schaub
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Jay Cutler

(I’m not ranking Favre and Warner due to the possibility of retirement. If both return, I’d put both in the Top 10).

RUNNING BACKS
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Ray Rice
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Frank Gore
6. Steven Jackson
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Fred Jackson
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Rashard Mendenhall

(This one got tougher. I like the first 7 but it gets dicier after that. I really like Fred Jackson a lot if the Bills commit to him. I could see Beanie Wells rising near this level too and Harrison if he’s the Browns’ undisputed starter).

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Randy Moss
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Brandon Marshall
6. Roddy White
7. Miles Austin
8. Calvin Johnson
9. DeSean Jackson
10. Vincent Jackson

(The WR depth looks awesome for 2010. There are going to be a lot of quality WRs taken in the Top 20).

TIGHT ENDS
1. Dallas Clark
2. Vernon Davis
3. Jason Witten
4. Antonio Gates
5. Tony Gonzalez
6. Brent Celek
7. Kellen Winslow
8. Owen Daniels
9. Jermichael Finley
10. Chris Cooley

Tags: Football

What To Do With Mike Sims-Walker?

For most of the season, Mike Sims-Walker was a godsend to his fantasy owners. Likely claimed off the Waiver Wire in most leagues, he produced WR1 numbers and looked like the type of stud who could help lead a team to greatness.

But with apologies to Emilio Estevez, that was then and this is now.

The past three weeks have been nothing short of brutal for Sims-Walker owners. After averaging nearly six receptions in his first eight starts, he has only six receptions total in his last three games, including only two in the past two.

That’s right two receptions.

For a former WR1.

As I wrote in my blog earlier this week, his performance (or lack thereof) was particularly painful to the owners who started him. So heading into this week, Sims-Walker was likely locked on most fantasy benches.

But then came Tuesday. On Tuesday, Sims-Walker not only practiced, but he practiced fully. This is rather significant for a player who just a few days ago was listed as doubtful for the game against the Dolphins. A full work of practice could be an indication Sims-Walker’s health is improving.

The matchup this week is favorable for the Jags given the Colts’ issues in the secondary. But the past three matchups have been favorable for the Jags too and Sims-Walker failed to come through.

So what should his owners do this week? It really comes down to two things – 1) Your other options and 2) Your expectations.

I would not advise starting Sims-Walker over a WR who has been producing well lately. The only way I would consider starting Sims-Walker is if you believed your team could withstand another dud. That’s really what it comes down to. If he puts up another one-reception performance, is that going to derail your team’s title chances?

At this stage of the season, I believe you need to minimize risk wherever possible. The problem with Sims-Walker is there has been no middle ground this season. He’s either been a star WR or a bum. That makes the decision on whether to start him Thursday night more difficult. You’d hate to have a WR1 sitting on your bench in Week 15 but you’d also hate to start a dog and have him undermine your team’s chances for success.

This may be one of the most difficult decisions fantasy owners have to make this week. For me, it’s going to come down to the reports I hear about Sims-Walker today and tomorrow and whether I have another option I believe can outproduce him. If you do, I strongly recommend you play it safe and go that route. At this stage of the season, I think it’s best to error on the side of caution.

Tags: Football

Who Do I Trust?

Trust. It’s the foundation of any good relationship. It’s no different between a fantasy football owner and his team – especially during these critical weeks of the season.

If you can’t trust someone, you simply can’t start them. No matter how badly you may want to, it’s rarely a good idea. And no matter how long you have played this game, it’s a lesson that should never be forgotten.

Case in point: Mike Sims-Walker.

I started Sims-Walker in my main league yesterday despite the fact he hadn’t produced well in his last two games and reportedly was struggling to run well on Saturday and had been listed as being doubtful. Making matters worse was the fact I started him over Reggie Bush, who I was touting all week long as a top sleeper pick on Twitter. I went with Sims-Walker because the matchup was on paper ridiculously easy (so was Bush’s which is why I struggled with the decision) and I thought he had more upside than Bush.

I was wrong. Boy, was I ever wrong.

Hopefully, those 20 points that were left on my bench won’t cost me my league title. But it brought forward a painful reminder that trust is critical when evaluating which players should be in your starting lineup during this critical juncture of the season.

So let’s break down each NFL team and I’ll talk about who I trust and who I don’t for the remaining weeks of the season:

Arizona: Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are all strong options. Tim Hightower remains a solid RB2 in PPR leagues. Beanie Wells should only be started when the matchup is favorable and he has the potential to score.

Atlanta: Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez remain Must Starts. Michael Turner is one too when he’s healthy. Matt Ryan is a matchup play if he can return from his toe injury.

Baltimore: Ray Rice is a Must Start in all leagues. Derrick Mason is a terrific WR2. I only trust Joe Flacco when the matchup is extremely favorable (as was the case in Week 14 against the Lions). Todd Heap isn’t worth considering unless you’re really in rough shape at TE. Consider Willis McGahee in TD-heavy leagues when the matchup is favorable. He’s starting to get goal-line looks.

Buffalo: Terrell Owens is a solid WR2 when the matchup is right. Lee Evans is better off on your bench. Fred Jackson is a solid RB2 while Marshawn Lynch is regaining some RB3 value. Ryan Fitzpatrick is pretty much worthless.

Carolina: Steve Smith is still a stud talent but he’s more of a WR2. He’s viable most weeks in that role. DeAngelo Williams is a Must Start when healthy. Jonathan Stewart is a hit-or-miss RB3. Matt Moore hasn’t shown anything since replacing Jake Delhomme.

Chicago: Nobody here can be started with any degree of confidence. At best, Matt Forte is a RB3 in PPR leagues. Jay Cutler looked much better in Week 14 but I still don’t trust him. Start him at your own risk. Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett are nothing more than WR4 options in larger leagues. Greg Olsen is being killed by Cutler, so his value has sunk too. I’d still start him if I didn’t have a more productive option.

Cincinnati: Cedric Benson showed again in Week 14 that he’s a strong starting option against any defense. Keep starting him. Chad Ochocinco is a solid WR2, but I’ve lost faith in Carson Palmer. He simply isn’t getting it done. Nobody else is worthy of being started. If you need the Bengals’ defense, the Week 16 matchup against the Chiefs looks real good.

Cleveland: The backfield is a mess. One week it’s Jerome Harrison. The next it’s Chris Jennings. I think it’s best to avoid this entire situation. I’m starting to become intrigued by Evan Moore, though.

Dallas: Miles Austin and Jason Witten are Must Starts. The December vibes are turning bad for Tony Romo again but this is a passing offense so he should get production most weeks. The running game is a mess. I wouldn’t want to start any of these guys. Roy Williams is earning WR3 value so he’s more viable now than he’s been at any point with the Cowboys.

Denver: Brandon Marshall is The Beast. You obviously start him every week. Knowshon Moreno’s schedule looks tasty the rest of the way – especially if Correll Buckhalter is hurt. He’s at least a solid RB2. Kyle Orton is nothing more than a pedestrian QB2. You’d have to be pretty desperate to start him. Nobody else can be started with any semblance of confidence.

Detroit: Calvin Johnson is a stud but he clearly needs Matthew Stafford because Daunte Culpepper has nothing left. If Culpepper starts, consider Megatron a WR2 if the matchup is favorable and a WR3 if the matchup isn’t. Stafford could be a solid QB2 the rest of the way if he gets healthy because he has some nice matchups. With Kevin Smith done for the year, nobody in the backfield is worth pursuing.

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers is a stud. Donald Driver is a strong WR2 but Greg Jennings is more of a WR3 this season. Ryan Grant gets a bad rap but he’s a rock-solid RB2. Jermichael Finley has become very viable as a starting TE. I trust all of these guys at various degrees if I had them. I love the way the defense is playing too.

Houston: Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are elite talents and Must Starts. I don’t trust Chris Brown or Ryan Moats so I’d avoid the backfield. I like Kevin Walter but it simply isn’t happening for him this season and I wouldn’t start him unless I absolutely had to.

Indianapolis: Peyton Manning is obviously a Must Start and so is Dallas Clark but Reggie Wayne’s production has really taken a hit. I’d still start him every week but it might be time to lower the expectations a bit. I’d start Pierre Garcon as a WR3 every week if I had him. Austin Collie is a very viable WR4 each week due to his upside. Joseph Addai has been quite good as a RB2. I’d start him against any defense.

Jacksonville: Maurice Jones-Drew is the only player I trust here. Mike Sims-Walker has been putrid the past three games and isn’t getting it done so I’d no longer consider starting him. David Garrard proved yet again in Week 14 that he can’t be trusted even against the easiest of matchups. Torry Holt has nothing left. Marcedes Lewis is nothing more than a backup TE with little upside.

Kansas City: Jamaal Charles is becoming a standout RB and I’d start him every week if I had him. Dwayne Bowe returns from his suspension this week and if he’s activated, I’d start him as a WR2. Bowe’s return will make Chris Chambers irrelevant so hopefully you enjoyed the ride. Matt Cassel could be a decent QB2 if Bowe’s back in the lineup but I don’t trust him so start him at your own risk.

Miami: Ricky Williams has earned my trust as a RB2. I was just starting to feel real good about Davone Bess but then he came up small in Week 14. I still think he’s a viable WR3 in PPR leagues but I’d feel better about him as a WR4. No other WR does anything for me. Chad Henne is viable when the matchup is favorable. He looks like he’s going to be a good NFL QB.

Minnesota: Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice are Must Starts. Visanthe Shiancoe is a rock solid starting TE as well. Percy Harvin is a fine WR3 when healthy. I don’t have much faith in Bernard Berrian so you’d have to be desperate to start him. I’d only consider Chester Taylor if Peterson was injured. The Vikings’ defense is good but it hasn’t done much for fantasy owners the past few games.

New England: Tom Brady isn’t playing well right now but you’d have to have some sick QB talent to sit him. Same with Randy Moss at WR. But with Moss, it might be time to lower the expectations a bit as is the case with Reggie Wayne. Wes Welker is a stud WR and I can’t imagine sitting him in any league. The backfield is a mess. Kevin Faulk is getting goal-line looks, Sammy Morris is in the mix, Fred Taylor could be back next week and Laurence Maroney is still “starting.” I’d avoid all of these guys. Same with Ben Watson even though he scored in Week 14.

New Orleans: Drew Brees is obviously a Must Start. I’d start Marques Colston and Pierre Thomas every week too. Robert Meachem didn’t score in Week 14 but I love him as a WR2. Devery Henderson has been very reliable as a WR3 so I’d roll with him. Reggie Bush continues to produce touchdowns so he’s very viable. People really need to be more aware of how much the Saints like to use him in the Red Zone. Jeremy Shockey hasn’t been great but I’d still start him most weeks. The Saints’ defense is still delivering most weeks so I’d keep rolling with them.

NY Jets: Thomas Jones is a strong starting option. Jones is playing so well that Shonn Greene’s role is only as a backup. He shouldn’t be started. Jerricho Cotchery hasn’t gotten much love this season but I’d keep going with him as a WR3. I have zero faith in Braylon Edwards so I wouldn’t want to start him. Dustin Keller isn’t getting it done either. I don’t like either of the Jets’ QBs – Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens as starting options even if the matchup is outstanding.

NY Giants: Eli Manning is more of a QB2 but this team simply can’t run the ball effectively any more so he might have to air it out a ton the rest of the way. That makes him worthy of starting consideration. I’d keep going with Steve Smith in PPR leagues and Hakeem Nicks has plenty of upside as a WR2. Mario Manningham has lost his starting job and I’ve lost some faith in him. I’d only consider him a matchup play as a WR4. I don’t trust Brandon Jacobs anymore. Ahmad Bradshaw looked good in Week 14 so I’d consider him as a RB3. Kevin Boss is more of a reach play at TE.

Oakland: Zach Miller is the only one I feel good about here. The running game has gone nowhere so I’d avoid Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden. Bruce Gradkowski was showing something before getting hurt in Week 14. JaMarcus Russell is obviously awful so if he’s back in the starting lineup, this offense has lost what little potential it had. None of the WRs should be started regardless of who the QB is.

Philadelphia: Donovan McNabb, DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek are all strong starting options. LeSean McCoy looks good but isn’t being used much lately so I’d view him now as a RB3 instead of a RB2. Jeremy Maclin’s hurt and none of the other WRs are consistent enough to consider. Even if Brian Westbrook returns, I don’t envision him delivering much so I wouldn’t want to start him.

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger has played well for most of this season so I’m starting him regardless of the matchup. Same with Santonio Holmes and Rashard Mendenhall. Hines Ward is laboring with a hamstring injury so he’s no longer a Must Start. Heath Miller remains a solid TE option.

St. Louis: Steven Jackson is the only one on this team who should be considered in any league. At this point, though, I no longer view him as a RB1 because things are just unraveling badly.

San Diego: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson are all strong starting options. LaDainian Tomlinson continues to score touchdowns so he’s a very viable RB2. Malcolm Floyd has talent but has done nothing since becoming the starter so there’s no reason to consider him. Darren Sproles is too inconsistent to trust.

San Francisco: Alex Smith has become very trustworthy. Vernon Davis has become a stud TE and I love Michael Crabtree as a WR3. I’d still roll with Frank Gore but his declining role in the offense is baffling. Tonight could be a huge game in deciding how much faith I have in him the rest of the way.

Seattle: If Nate Burleson is healthy, I’ll keep rolling with him as a WR3. I like Justin Forsett as a RB3 in PPR leagues. I’ve lost all of my faith in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. John Carlson scored in Week 14 but I still don’t trust him. I wouldn’t want to start Julius Jones either. I’d still go with Matt Hasselbeck when the matchup is favorable but I wouldn’t expect the world.

Tampa Bay: Kellen Winslow remains a solid TE. I’m really feeling Antonio Bryant the final three weeks now that he’s gotten Darrelle Revis off his schedule. Cadillac Williams is just a RB3 and not one I feel all that great about.

Tennessee: I think I’ll keep starting Chris Johnson if that’s OK with everyone. Vince Young’s injury status makes him more questionable going forward. Even if he returns in Week 15, I’m not sure I trust him to stay healthy. I like Kenny Britt as a WR3 but I like him much more with Young than with Kerry Collins. If Collins starts, I wouldn’t consider starting him since they’ll dial the offense back considerably. Bo Scaife is starting to generate solid production so he’s viable in larger leagues at TE.

Washington: Jason Campbell is playing very well of late. I’d keep starting him if I needed him. Quenton Ganther looked pretty good in Week 14 so if you need some RB3 help he’s worth a look. Fred Davis is getting it done at TE so I’m feeling good about him. I have no faith in Santana Moss and what little faith I was starting to develop in Devin Thomas was flushed down the toilet in Week 14. I’d avoid both guys going forward.

Tags: Football

Week 14 Sleeper Picks

It’s hard to believe the football season is almost over. But here we are in Week 14 and the critical weeks of the season are now upon us.

That means lineup decisions must be precise, points can be left wasted on the bench and every move an owner makes has to be on the mark. Finding points is at a premium and with that in mind, here are some sleeper picks this week who could help push your team over the top:

QUARTERBACK
Joe Flacco Bal. (vs. Det.): Flacco has been impossible to trust for the past several weeks and he looked awful in the Week 13 loss at Green Bay. But he gets the tonic that cures all ills this week – the Detroit Lions. Detroit’s pass defense is putrid. Even a QB who’s struggling like Flacco can deliver against them. If you need him in deeper leagues, this is a good week to start him.

RUNNING BACKS
Fred Jackson Buf. (at KC): Jackson lost out on the fun last week as Marshawn Lynch stole his thunder. But even if Lynch maintains a role in the backfield this week Jackson should deliver against an awful Chiefs’ run defense. Jackson has RB2 potential this week.

Tim Hightower Ari. (at SF): Hightower continues to be a productive fantasy option. He also tore the 49ers up in Week 1, catching 12 passes for 121 yards. The Niners are improving offensively which could turn this game into a shootout. If that occurs, Hightower’s role in the passing game will make him a fine RB2 this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Robert Meachem NO (vs. Atl.): Meachem is no longer flying under the radar. Not after his impressive “defensive” touchdown last week. He’s scored in five straight games and gets to chew on a horrible Atlanta defense this week. He’s the best non-starting option in fantasy football right now and is looking great again this week.

Kenny Britt Ten. (vs. StL): Justin Gage could return this week and that will cut into Britt’s snaps, but Britt is playing too well to lose his starting job. He’s scored in three straight games and this week’s matchup is very favorable. With 25 targets in the past three games, his role of importance has grown significantly. He’s poised for another strong game on Sunday.

Michael Crabtree SF (vs. Ari.): Crabtree continues to deliver solid production. He caught six passes for 60 yards last week and has at least four receptions in six of the past seven games. The Cardinals are suspect in the secondary and with Alex Smith playing well, the Niners are in a position to put up some points on Monday Night. That makes Crabtree a fine WR3 with WR2 upside.

TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley GB (at Chi.): Finley had another big game in Week 13, catching seven passes for 79 yards and two TDs. He was a non-factor in the Week 1 matchup against the Bears, but Chicago is a shell of the team it was when the season began. The Bears’ defense is soft and Finley is carving out a fine role in the Green Bay passing game. He’s become a quality starting option in all leagues.

Tags: Football

Week 13 Sleepers

It’s crunch time in fantasy football. Many leagues will begin their playoffs in the next week and that means the decisions become even more critical.

My philosophy at this time of the year is simple – go with what’s working but don’t ignore potential issues. Does that sound contradictory? It shouldn’t. Consider Terrell Owens this week, for example.

Owens has been on fire of late but this week he faced Jets corner Darrelle Revis, who is having a season for the ages. Revis has shut down every star receiver he’s faced this season, including Owens once before. So while Owens had been playing well, he wasn’t a strong option this week because he was being matched up against Revis. To no one’s surprise, Owens did nothing last night, catching only three passes for 31 yards. Hopefully TO owners did the right thing and sat him this week.

So there are times when sitting players who have been productive recently is the way to go. And at this stage of the season, it becomes paramount to maximize your team’s point total potential.

With that in mind, here are some sleeper picks for Week 13 who could help your team deliver the points it needs in this critical week of the season:

QUARTERBACKS
Alex Smith SF (at Sea.): With so many QBs experiencing issues, Smith’s production has earned him QB1 status this week. He’s topped 225 yards passing and thrown five TDs the past two weeks. Against a woeful Seattle pass defense, Smith should keep on rollng.

RUNNING BACKS
LeSean McCoy Phi. (at Atl.): McCoy continues to shine in place of the injured Brian Westbrook. He has posted double-digit points in all five of his starts this season and has Top 10 potential in PPR leagues this week against a weak Atlanta run defense.

Jonathan Stewart Car. (at TB): Stewart has rushed for 225 yards and three TDs in his last three games against Tampa Bay. He rushed for 110 yards and a TD against the Bucs in Week 6. He’s a strong RB3 option this week with RB2 upside.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Jeremy Maclin Phi. (at Atl.): With DeSean Jackson likely out due to a concussion, Maclin’s role with the Eagles will grow this season. Donovan McNabb will spread the ball around, but Maclin’s big-play ability combined with a weak Atlanta pass defense gives him plenty of potential this week.

Chris Chambers KC (at Den.): Cast aside by the Chargers, Chambers has found new life in Kansas City. With Dwayne Bowe out with a suspension he has taken over as the team’s No. 1 receiver. He has at least three receptions and 60 yards receiving in his four games with Kansas City and has scored three TDs in that span. The matchup this week against Denver isn’t easy but Chambers is rolling and getting plenty of targets. That gives him fine value as a WR3 this week.

Michael Crabtree SF (at Sea.): Crabtree has proven that training camp is for sissies. Despite missing camp and the first six games, Crabtree has adjusted quickly to the NFL. He has caught at least three passes in all six of his games and has had four receptions or more in five. The Seahawks have issues in the secondary and the Niners have a hot QB in Alex Smith. That combination makes Crabtree a fine WR3 to use this week.

TIGHT ENDS
Tony Scheffler Den. (at KC): This one is tricky. There are only a handful of tight ends this season who have been consistent fantasy options and Scheffler isn’t one of them. But if you’re struggling at the position, he has some upside this week against a Chiefs’ defense that has struggled mightily against TEs of late. Again, there’s risk involved with Scheffler but in larger leagues he’s viable this week.

Tags: Football

This Year’s Top Value Picks

I’m not one who gets all worked up about Black Friday. I’m usually still dealing with a tryptophan-induced hangover the day after Thanksgiving to care about how the great deals at Target or Best Buy.

But when it comes to fantasy football, I know a good value pick when I see one. So with playoff weeks fast approaching in many leagues, I thought I’d take a look at the players who have been the top value picks in fantasy football for 2009 using the Average Draft Position from the National Fantasy Football Championship’s Primetime event.

QB:
Brett Favre (ADP of 135): Not only has he served up a painful lesson on player evaluation to Ted Thompson, but he’s made all of his fantasy owners giddy this season as well. He’s in contention for a record fourth MVP award and has the Vikings poised to make a Super Bowl run. You can’t beat that for a 12th-round pick.

RB
Cedric Benson (76): The Bears must be wondering what happened to the Cedric Benson they knew, but the Bengals are loving his production this season. A hip injury derailed him in Week 12, but he’s provided fantasy owners with powerhouse rushing production all season long.

Rashard Mendenhall (109): Mendenhall struggled out of the gates but when Willie Parker went down with a toe injury, the second-year RB took over and hasn’t relinquished the starting job. He runs hard, gets a little love here and there in the passing game and looks like he’ll be a quality RB for years to come.

WR
Steve Smith (108): “The other Steve Smith” has outplayed his Carolina counterpart, emerging as the Giants’ go-to receiver and a PPR stud. He may not find the end zone with a high degree of frequency, but when it comes to getting 6-8 receptions a game, he’s money.

Nate Burleson (126): An afterthought for many owners, Burleson has stayed healthy this season and emerged as Seattle’s No. 1 receiver, outplaying prized free-agent pickup T.J. Houshmandzadeh. He’s become a strong WR2 in fantasy leagues.

Mike Sims-Walker (184): He began the season backing up Troy Williamson but after Williamson got hurt in Week 1, MSW took over and has been a fantasy stud. Despite having a QB (David Garrard) who can go belly up at a moment’s notice (see Week 12, for example), Sims-Walker has put up WR1 numbers and has a terrific schedule the rest of the way.

Miles Austin (184): Austin made a huge splash in Week 5 against Kansas City with 10 receptions for 250 yards and two TDs. Since then, he’s caught at least four passes in five of six games while scoring in four of those games. He bounced back from a sub-par two-week total with a mammoth 7-145-1 game on Thanksgiving. As long as the Cowboys continue to target him aggressively, he’ll have WR1 potential the rest of the season.

TE
Vernon Davis (167): A major bust prior to this season, Davis has finally begun to live up to his first-round billing. He ranks second among TEs in scoring and has been a Must Start regardless of the team’s QB. With the 49ers going to a more wide-open attack, his value the rest of the way remains strong.

Tags: Football

Whither Miles Austin?

Fame can be fleeting. Just ask Nick Lachey, Lindsay Lohan or Philip Michael Thomas. Or Miles Austin.

It wasn’t long ago that Austin was one of this season’s Waiver Wire sensations. He burst onto the scene with an amazing Week 5 performance, catching 10 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner, against Kansas City.

Austin then followed up that sterling effort with four touchdowns in his next three games. Suddenly, the fantasy owners who either drafted Austin late or snared him off the Waiver Wire were giddy with excitement over the production they were receiving and the potential they believed Austin could deliver the rest of the season.

But just like that, Austin has gone the way of Ricardo Tubbs.

Austin has been a huge disappointment the past two games, catching a combined eight passes for a meager 67 yards and 0 touchdowns against Green Bay and Washington. The entire Dallas passing game is sputtering so Austin isn’t alone by any means, but the standout WR1 production he was delivering has been nowhere to be found. Instead, Austin has reverted to being a low end WR3 with his inability to find the end zone and his lack of quality production.

Now his owners are wondering which Miles Austin should they expect the rest of the season? The stud they saw from Weeks 5-9 or the dud who has been a dud in their starting lineups in Weeks 10-11?

My belief is the production he’s delivered the past two games is closer to what his owners should expect. It seems clear the magical production he had in his first three games as a starter (21 receptions for 482 yards and 5 TDs) is not likely to be repeated anytime soon and quite likely was a fluke. The key issues I’ve seen with Austin is that he is struggling to beat press coverage and he lacks the high-end ability to find holes in the secondary when faced with double coverage.

He’s only 25 and he is talented so he has a chance to be a good receiver in the future. However, the best WRs in the game face double teams on a consistent basis but still have enough savvy and skill to make plays despite that formidable opposition. The issue with Austin is we’re seeing defenses respond to his emergence and having little difficulty taking him out of games.

If you’re looking for a silver lining this week against the Raiders, the good news is Austin isn’t likely to face Oakland’s top CB – Nnamdi Asomugha – all that often. Asomugha lines up almost exclusively on the offense’s left side of the field. Austin has been rotated on both sides of the field although last week, he spent almost the entire game lined up on the right side.

That means he’ll likely see more of CB Chris Johnson, who isn’t a world beater by any means. However, when you consider the Raiders allow fewer than one touchdown pass per game, Austin’s potential isn’t very high.

At best, he’s a WR4 this week and if you have better options I’d advise sitting him and seeing if he can become a stronger fantasy option. The games are too critical at this juncture of the season to hope a player will deliver. Now you need to start the players who are producing and Austin simply has not been producing of late.

Tags: Football

Wonderful Wells

I’m a big Beanie Wells fan. I can’t lie. Going into this year’s NFL draft, I believed he was the most talented running back in the draft. He had terrific skills and a high ceiling. The only concern was durability. But if Wells could stay healthy, I believed greatness would be there for him in the NFL.

Unfortunately for Wells owners, the path to greatness hasn’t been realized just yet.

Wells has spent most of this season playing second fiddle to the surprisingly effective Tim Hightower. But after a huge game last week which saw him rush for 85 yards and 2 TDs, Wells’ stock is on the rise and many fantasy owners believe Wells is going to be a major impact player the remainder of the season.

Let me put the brakes on that a bit if I may.

First off, let me state this isn’t a talent issue. As I wrote earlier, I think Wells has a tremendous amount of talent. There’s no question in my mind that if he was the featured RB on any team he would be a standout starting RB in the NFL.

But therein lies the rub – he’s not a starting RB and he’s not the featured RB for the Cardinals.

Wells backers seem to be ignoring one critical component here – Tim Hightower is still very much a key factor in the Arizona backfield. Hightower is averaging nearly 10 rushing attempts per game, his role is significantly higher than Wells’ in the passing game (a rather critical aspect given how Arizona is primarily a passing game) and he’s been the No. 1 option for goal-line rushing attempts all season long.

In order for Wells to achieve the levels of fantasy success I’ve seen predicted for him this week, he will need Hightower to go away and that simply isn’t going to happen barring injury. The Cardinals like their rotation and they like what Hightower provides and as long as that fondness remains, Wells’ fantasy upside will be held in check.

It’s also important to remember that while Wells’ game last week was sensational, he hasn’t yet shown he can be counted on consistently from his fantasy owners. In Week 7, he rushed for 67 yards and a TD and caught three passes in a win over the Giants. At that time, it looked like he was about to break through as well. What happened next? Two lackluster fantasy games (119 total rushing yards), 0 TDs and 0 receptions. In both games, he was outplayed from a fantasy perspective by Hightower.

Now the matchup this week is inviting against the hapless Rams. The Cardinals should be able to play from the front and utilize Wells effectively. But they played from the front in Week 9 against the Bears and while Wells ran well (13 carries for 72 yards), he didn’t score and he didn’t catch a pass and his overall fantasy production wasn’t anything spectacular.

So while I like Wells a lot, I would exercise some caution. As long as he’s stuck in a committee situation, that enhances the possibility that more games like Week 9 against the Bears will occur than Week 10 against the Seahawks. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be excited about what Wells can provide, but I do think people need to remember who the Cardinals are and remember a big part of what they do is throw the ball and that is where Tim Hightower functions best and not Beanie Wells.

Unless that changes – and I don’t see any reason to believe it will – then Wells may not be the strong RB2 some predict him to be, but rather a fine RB3 with upside when the matchup is right.

Tags: Football

Critiquing Cutler

The fantasy football world is up in arms after Jay Cutler’s five-interception meltdown last night in the loss at San Francisco. Cutler Sucks. I’ll never draft Cutler again. The Bears look like fools for trading for him.

All of these comments can be heard far and wide. But are they accurate?

I don’t believe they are.

There’s no question Cutler needs to become more disciplined in the pocket. He makes some bad throws and his fundamentals need further refinement. So he isn’t a superstar by any means. He still has some work to do in order to improve his skills.

However, let’s not forget some rather important facts about his situation right now:

1. The Bears can’t run the football. They just can’t. Blame the offensive line. Blame Matt Forte. Blame both. No matter how you slice it, this team cannot run the football so Cutler is forced to do more to try and help his team win. At some point, that will come back to bite you in the behind.

2. Three of Cutlers’ INTs last night weren’t his fault. That doesn’t excuse the two horrendous Red Zone picks he threw, but his statistical line was not helped by things he did not cause.

3. The offensive line cannot pass protect. The Bears’ line has major issues. If a team cannot run block or pass block, chances are that will result in turnovers. Again, this isn’t meant to excuse Cutler, but it shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

4. The defense, before last night, has been dreadful. Again, this places more pressure on Cutler to deliver.

5. The wide receiver corps is pretty suspect. Devin Hester is a No. 2 WR at best. Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox are No. 3s. How much better do you think Cutler would be doing if he had someone like Brandon Marshall to throw to?

Remember all these things when you’re watching Cutler play. Perhaps we are seeing the next Jeff George and not a poor man’s Brett Favre. But I still believe Cutler is a tremendous talent and if the Bears can improve the situation around him, his overall production will increase in the years to come.

It may be ugly at times for Cutler this season, but there’s no way I’m giving up on him from a fantasy perspective. And if you’re in a league next year with owners who do, that will be your opportunity to perhaps get a very gifted QB at a bargain price.

Tags: Football

Week 9 NFL Thoughts

Here are some thoughts and observations with every game but one in the books for Week 9:

I’ll start with something close to home – it’s time for Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy to go in Green Bay. This is a poorly coached team with poor execution and a glaring lack of top-level talent. The two men responsible for those shortcomings are Thompson and McCarthy. With so many top head coaching candidates available after this season, now’s the time for Green Bay to make the move. My ideal choice would be Bill Cowher.

Dear Chad Johnson – the dollar store is two blocks down and on the left.

I’m not going to lie – my man love for Chris Johnson could result in a restraining order being issued against me.

Welcome back Mike Sims-Walker.

Calvin Johnson owners spent the last month without their (allegedly) stud wide receiver and that is what they receive when he finally gets back on the field? Life sure isn’t fair sometimes.

Hey look, Reggie Bush can still catch a ton of passes in a game.

I think Tom Brady and Randy Moss are on the same page again.

Memo to the Dallas Cowboys – you might want to consider scrapping the “We won’t throw the ball to Miles Austin until the last few minutes of the game” plan. He’s pretty good and should be getting the ball a lot more than he did Sunday night.

Remember when the San Francisco 49ers were considered a rising playoff team? That was a fun couple of weeks, wasn’t it?

Think the Vikings picked a good week to have their bye?

Jake Delhomme not only started in the Super Bowl once, he nearly beat Tom Brady there. Try to remember that as you watch him now.

Hold on, Dallas Clark just caught another pass.

That sure was ugly Joe Flacco. Good thing you have the Browns coming up next week.

This one is for Ken Magner who I saw in Phoenix last week – Sack, didn’t I tell you the Bengals were looking much stronger for this week’s game than you thought?

It’s painful watching LaDainian Tomlinson try to run these days. Absolutely painful.

The Patriots get the unbeaten Colts next week and the unbeaten Saints in Week 12. That’s the kind of scheduling NFL fans should all appreciate.

Vince Young still can’t throw but there’s no denying the Titans are playing with more zest with him than they did with Kerry Collins. Again, though, his utter lack of passing ability makes him a liability that will be exploited against better teams than the Jaguars and 49ers.

Anquan Boldin wasn’t happy he was inactive due to his ankle injury. It probably didn’t help his mood that Arizona’s offense looked as good as it has all season long without him.

Tags: Football